Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 13.195834 15.386634 17.777042 20.572174 23.743821 27.223656 31.323170
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 9.625892 12.573891 16.109082 20.629181 26.220114 32.871479 41.342125
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 7.043631 10.182924 14.273706 19.921487 27.431367 36.978985 49.923987
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 5.346269 8.468264 12.848185 19.312782 28.455644 40.743391 58.284987
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 4.352869 7.477252 12.153665 19.464459 30.358117 45.692461 68.530739
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 3.507473 6.509086 11.284155 19.157738 31.462245 49.519330 77.445792
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 3.108899 6.166068 11.288574 20.121225 34.479560 56.281171 91.044117
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 2.678008 5.672376 10.951129 20.454994 36.497034 61.652340 102.926532
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 2.283901 5.161110 10.490844 20.493920 37.994355 66.282102 113.953478
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.959485 4.715085 10.068338 20.520117 39.431093 70.874283 125.187758
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.861962 4.712364 10.463676 22.047439 43.564230 80.131128 144.506498
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.725541 4.597830 10.619874 23.133124 46.991249 88.422252 162.734221
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.566631 4.412888 10.630310 23.983608 50.151503 96.629145 181.622265
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.334731 4.006933 10.122563 23.754116 51.295770 101.446700 195.127776
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.090915 3.511120 9.336252 22.845987 51.038186 103.733184 204.373571
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.900886 3.106226 8.682333 22.120279 51.043566 106.463076 214.543682
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.790439 2.894750 8.447413 22.276014 52.832093 112.617351 231.273559
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.671061 2.623494 8.016731 21.925281 53.519345 116.701692 244.406309
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.631088 2.590744 8.190620 23.006685 57.346573 127.115444 269.996635
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.566483 2.458997 8.078685 23.381009 59.653284 134.653496 290.492624
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.497963 2.293654 7.845732 23.424433 61.220543 140.797261 308.623266
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.437902 2.140436 7.619638 23.453752 62.750537 146.949814 327.092632
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.433081 2.198074 8.023135 25.169209 68.324758 161.798318 363.558022